Monday, November 24, 2008

Call rates to fall, more of VAS on your mobile

Reliance is offering calls at 50 paise a minute in a prepaid package. Virgin has already offered 10 paise for incoming calls. This is just an indication of the windfall gains that a mobile subscriber can expect in the days to come.

The race among mobile telecommunication service providers translates in to a growing opportunity estimated at more than 700 million by 2012 from the current 300 million, at a CAGR of 21%, says strategic research company IndusView that advises multinational companies on business opportunities emanating from India’s fast growing economy.

IndusView says in an email response that “Communication is a necessity.” “The related costs of owning a handset and usage charges (tariffs) in India are among the lowest in the world. To add to that, the service providers are offering innovative tariff packages even while touching the lowest band and are willing to further lower the packages to bring new subscribers in to their fold,” says Mr. Bundeep Singh Rangar, Chairman of IndusView Advisors Ltd.

Apart from the vanilla voice and text services that the mobile services are widely associated with, the advent of next generation platforms like 3G and progressively 4G, will exponentially accelerate the possibilities of innovative applications that can be bundled on to the networks and delivered at the subscribers' finger tips in the hi-tech mobile handsets, Mr Rangar says.

The subscriber growth targets and evolving technology landscape calls for corresponding high capital investments which is pegged at about $73 billion over the next five years. And, a major chunk of the investment is expected to be realized through Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), particularly in the area of mobile communication.

The recent string of investments in Indian telecom companies, including, Tata Teleservices Ltd by NTT DoCoMo, Inc; Unitech Telecom, the telecom arm of India's second largest real estate developer Unitech Ltd by Norwegian telecom firm Telenor ASA, world's seventh largest telecom service provider at $1.36 billion; and Swan Telecom, a start-up GSM telecom service company of a Mumbai-based real estate developer Dynamix Balwas Group by Dubai-based Emirates Telecommunications Corp (Etisalat) at $900 million; or, South Africa's largest telecom company MTN Group's attempts to enter the Indian market are examples of overseas companies that have exhibited confidence in the potential of the Indian market.

Stating that the country’s tele-density has jumped to about 30% now from less than 1% in the 80s, Mr Rangar points out that there is still a large population that needs to be offered the benefits of the basic communication services – that is how the target of achieving a tele-density of about 45% is set for the next five years by the government of India. The service providers – both the state owned and the private sector – would be aiming to surpass that target and garner the maximum possible chunk of that potential subscriber base.

Friday, November 21, 2008

Let's fight the current crisis unitedly, says PM

NEW DELHI: Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh today expressed the confidence that India will survive the current global financial crisis and emerge stronger “if we have the imagination, sense of unity and the will to work together as a united nation”.

Addressing the HT Summit 2008 in New Delhi, Dr Singh noted that the global economy is today, going through choppy waters. “Our century I sincerely believe will be shaped by how we respond to the global economic crisis today. If nations look only inwards and imagine that they can solve their problems on their own, they will fail and fall. The world has become more integrated and inter-dependent. In both good and bad, in prosperity and peril, in opportunity and crisis we must recognise the new inter-dependencies of nations and no nation is an island into itself,” he said.

Competitive politics must not be allowed to divide our people on the basis of religion, caste or region. At home and globally we seek an inclusive growth process.

He recalled that at the recent G-20 Summit last week he has urged world leaders to recognise these inter-dependencies and our stake in our collective future. We need a global safety net so that the poor of the world do not pay a price for the profligacy of the rich, and the delinquency of a few.

He said: “Global problems require global solutions. This is the most important lesson of the past century for the present century. But global institutions of governance must be made more inclusive and more representative. The voice of the developing world must be heard in the high councils of global decision-making.”

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Let's fight the current crisis unitedly, says PM

NEW DELHI: Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh today expressed the confidence that India will survive the current global financial crisis and emerge stronger “if we have the imagination, sense of unity and the will to work together as a united nation”.

Addressing the HT Summit 2008 in New Delhi, Dr Singh noted that the global economy is today, going through choppy waters. “Our century I sincerely believe will be shaped by how we respond to the global economic crisis today. If nations look only inwards and imagine that they can solve their problems on their own, they will fail and fall. The world has become more integrated and inter-dependent. In both good and bad, in prosperity and peril, in opportunity and crisis we must recognise the new inter-dependencies of nations and no nation is an island into itself,” he said.

Competitive politics must not be allowed to divide our people on the basis of religion, caste or region. At home and globally we seek an inclusive growth process.

He recalled that at the recent G-20 Summit last week he has urged world leaders to recognise these inter-dependencies and our stake in our collective future. We need a global safety net so that the poor of the world do not pay a price for the profligacy of the rich, and the delinquency of a few.

He said: “Global problems require global solutions. This is the most important lesson of the past century for the present century. But global institutions of governance must be made more inclusive and more representative. The voice of the developing world must be heard in the high councils of global decision-making.”

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Monday, November 17, 2008

Giving up on India? U wl repent: Kamal Nath

NEW DELHI: Union Commerce Minister Kamal Nath today said that world would benefit tremendously from a stable, large and growing consumer market provided by India and added that this is not the time for foreign investors to give up on India.

"Foreign investors who withdraw equity investments or shelve FDI plans in India will find themselves behind the curve as our economy picks up its 9-10% pace once again," he said addressing the Plenary Session on “Securing Opportunities for Inclusive Growth in India” at the India Economic Summit here.

Kamal Nath pointed out that India’s reform process has allowed millions of poor people to cross the poverty threshold and added that there is still a lot of room for further reforms in key areas such as public private partnerships, financial sector, and taxation, among others. He said that much action remains on the agenda table for integrating further with the global economy and becoming a vital link in the international supply chain of goods and services, funds and capital, and resources and talent.

The 3-day (16-18 November) Summit is being jointly organized by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) and World Economic Forum.

Kamal Nath emphasised that inclusive growth ultimately depends on the productivity of the overall workforce, which in turn is dependent on its education, skill development, technical and professional education, and talent resource levels. India’s workforce numbers around 500 million people and is expected to expand by about 20 million each year for the next ten years. “But 600 million people continue to depend on agriculture as a source of livelihood. While agriculture has been expanding at close to 3% annually, there is need to move people off the land in order to enhance their productivity and increase their incomes”, he added.

Speaking about India’s engagement with the world, he said that India’s total exports in 2004-05 was at $ 83.5 billion, whereas in 2007-08, it exceeded the targets and achieved a doubling of trade to $163 billion and this year, for the period April to September export growth was 31% over the same period last year. At the same time, we continue to be a solid market for overseas goods, he underlined and added that India’s imports have gone up from $ 112 billion in 2004-05 to $ 251 billion in 2007-08 and non-oil imports increased at a rapid clip of 43%. “When we include export and import of services, our external engagement can be placed at over $ 525 billion for the past year, which adds up to more than half of GDP. This is unprecedented in India’s modern economic history”, he said

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Tata tele valuation set to rise; Docomo comes in with Rs 13,070 cr

NTT Docomo (Docomo), Tata Teleservices (TTSL) and Tata Sons — the prime promoter for Tata companies including TTSL — today announced their agreement on a strategic alliance in India, under which Docomo will acquire 26-per cent of TTSL’s stock for approximately Rs13,070 crore ($2.7 billion).

In addition, Docomo, in accordance with regulations of the Securities and Exchange Board of India, expects to make an open offer to acquire up to 20 per cent of outstanding equity shares of Tata Teleservices Maharashtra (TTML), a Tata telecommunication company, through a joint tender offer along with Tata Sons.

As a result of the capital alliance, the partners expect to expand mobile communication operations in the fast-growing Indian mobile market, aiming to increase operating revenue and achieve steady business growth.

TTSL and TTML, both based in Mumbai, are telecommunications units of the Tata group, India’s largest conglomerate in terms of operating revenues. Both companies have high-quality wireless networks spanning the entire country and also have a large number of retail stores and customer-service outlets. TTSL and TTML have rapidly increased their combined share of the fast-growing Indian mobile market. They are rapidly expanding their subscriber bases, which currently stand at over 30 million combined.

Tokyo-based Docomo, the world’s leading mobile operator, has played a major role in the evolution of mobile telecommunications through its development of cutting-edge technologies and services. The company is a strong market leader used by over 50 per cent of Japan’s mobile phone users. Docomo will work closely with TTSL’s management and provide know-how to help the company develop its mobile business. TTSL expects to leverage Docomo’s expertise in the development and delivery of value-added services, where Docomo is a firmly established market leader.

Obama rings up Manmohan

In development that may have far-reaching impact on Indo-US investments, President-elect of the United States Mr. Barack Obama called the Prime Minister this morning. The Prime Minister congratulated him warmly and said that his historic victory was a source of inspiration for oppressed people all over the world.

President-elect Obama praised the Prime Minister’s contribution to the progress of India both as Minister of Finance earlier and now as Prime Minister. He said that the US-India strategic relationship was a very important partnership and that the new administration wanted to work together with India on all important global issues.

The Prime Minister said that relations between India and the United States were very good but that we could not be satisfied with the status quo. The Prime Minister conveyed his best wishes for the success of the new administration in meeting the enormous challenges that face the world and invited the President-elect and Mrs. Obama to visit India . He said that a warm welcome awaited them. The President-elect said that he wished to make an early visit to India

Sunday, November 9, 2008



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Indian Economy can survive global crisis

by S. Sethuraman**

India has taken an array of monetary and fiscal measures, in quick succession, to contain inflationary pressures - with the annual rate already moderating from around 13 per cent in August to 10.72 per cent by the end of October - and, more importantly, to make available adequate domestic resources to maintain growth in the face of an unprecedented international financial crisis and global economy drifting into recession.

The Reserve Bank had, within four weeks in October, lowered reserve ratios and reduced a key interest rate to provide some 250,000 crores of liquidity for banks to finance businesses and consumers. These measures, welcomed by the industry and other productive sectors, have helped to impart a sense of confidence about India‘s ability to weather the global storm.

Growth Momentum:Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh remains focussed on seeing that the Indian economy does not get unduly affected by the adverse developments abroad. He has appealed to the industry and the country in general to turn the crisis in the world economy into an opportunity to ensure that India comes out of the global crisis with its fundamentals unimpaired, protecting employment.

What gives confidence and strength to the Indian economy is its sound financial sector with its well-regulated and well-capitalised banking system, the sustained growth in deposit accretion and credit flows, and assured safety for depositors, the global competitiveness of its manufacturing and services, high savings and investment rates and a comfortable level of foreign exchange reserves which could be drawn to make up for any shortfalls in capital inflows.

The Finance Minister Shri P Chidambaram has urged banks to lower interest rates, in the light of the steps taken by RBI both on liquidity and interest rate, and several public sector banks have already announced plans on reducing their prime lending rates. Banks have been asked to increase credit for productive purposes and ensure credit quality. RBI has also suggested to banks to restructure the dues of small and medium enterprises on merits.

There is general expectation that inflation would continue to moderate - especially now that global prices of oil (though still volatile) and commodities have sharply declined from their high levels in the first half of 2008 - and RBI projects that the annual rate of inflation would be down to 7 per cent by March 2009. India can well maintain growth at not less than 7 to 7.5 per cent, as the Prime Minister pointed out, despite some adverse impact on trade and capital flows which all countries have begun to experience in these uncertain times. Even at 7.5 per cent, India will remain the second fastest growing economy.

Given the unsettled conditions in global markets, the Prime Minister has set up an high-powered group chaired by him to closely monitor the evolving macro-economic situation so that growth momentum is sustained at reasonable rates. A committee of senior officials would keep a day-to-day track of trends.

Monetary & Fiscal Measures: The Reserve Bank of India had vigorously moved in October to bring down the cash reserve ratio from a peak of 9 per cent to 5.5 per cent, reduce the key policy interest rate (repo) from 9 to 7.5 per cent and also the statutory liquidity ratio by one percentage point to 24 per cent of their net demand and time liabilities. These were all designed to inject massive doses of liquidity to the banking system which in any case has been recording a higher credit growth in the current year. Nevertheless, when there was some liquidity constraint experienced by money markets and the foreign exchange market also coming under demand pressures, RBI had to intervene with remedial measures.

As part of measures to minimise the adverse impact of global crisis on domestic economy, the Finance Minister has reduced certain duties to give relief to some of the affected sectors like steel and aviation. On the budgetary side, higher allocations for social sectors and rural employment and other flagship programmes should generate consumption which contributes to economy’s growth. Most corporates including in the I T sector and banks have managed to maintain profitability, though somewhat lower than expected, in the second quarter (July-September), and the recent government measures on liquidity and interest rates should help to sustain business confidence.

Monetary policy has moved away from continued tightening, in the days of inflation climbing during 2008, to a significant easing of curbs with the steady moderation in the annual rate of inflation after peaking at 12.65 per cent in August. It had since been coming down over recent weeks and stood at 10.72 per cent in the week ended October 25. While the fall in inflation rate has been facilitated by the sharp drop in global prices of oil, food and other commodities as well as domestic supply management, the oil market remains volatile. Taking crop prospects and other domestic factors into account, RBI continues its monetary policy stance of maintaining growth with price stability as well as orderly conditions in financial markets.

Macro-Economic Management: India has to summon all its abilities at macro-economic management because of the extraordinary global situation in which there is weakening of global demand and likely interruption in external capital flows. So far, there have been only ripple effects on the economy and exports in the first half of the fiscal year (April-September) have recorded a robust 35 per cent growth. But oil imports at higher prices have pushed up the import bill and trade deficit is widening. There was some ‘knock-on’ on financial markets but there is no longer any sign of liquidity tightening with the measures taken.

Many developing and leading emerging economies including China and Korea have come under strain and some of the poorer countries face risks of economic disruption because of fiscal and balance of payments difficulties. China’s growth, largely export-led hitherto, has also slowed down and it is reorienting its policies to promote greater domestic consumption with the weakening of external demand especially from USA and Europe due to recessionary conditions there. India’s exports can be maintained without loss of momentum in the latter half of the year with greater focus on products and growth markets, especially with the exchange rate which has depreciated in relation to the dollar.

While there has been an outflow of foreign portfolio investments of the order of 10 billion dollars, India continues to attract foreign direct investment which totalled an impressive 17.66 billion dollars in the first six months, April to September, compared to 7.25 billion in the corresponding period of last year. There has been some draw down on our reserves to meet imports and other payments. With its sound management and continued liberalisation, India continues to be an attractive investment destination, especially if investors have to seek avenues away from the recession-hit developed nations. (PIB Features)

*Freelance Journalist

Disclaimer : The views expressed by the author in this feature are entirely his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of PIB.